Avanza, with six months in advance, the general behavior of the economy: labor Tenders cement consumption Registrations occupation Confidence in the industrial sector of large enterprises Billing Retail Etc. carries a profile decreasing from the end of 2006. GHOSTS The housing crisis in the construction sector Knowing how are the banks, because they just clarified. (The Spanish banks are better placed than other countries because the Bank of Spain were forced to make provisions counter-cyclical over those conducted in other countries. Some have made further provisions extraordinary on their own). (February 28, Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said there are American banks could fail by the real estate business.) Lack of liquidity.

The provision has been difficult because banks do not have money to lend. (If you go out into the street, you will see the number of banks that are now campaigning to raise money. What happens is that M. de St. Quirze we talked about before is a little fly and still wondering whether it’s best to keep the money in a sock, like in the good times.) (I credit that has been difficult to say that, you get it or not, or if you get it, the conditions are not very affectionate, and for some sectors, frankly unfriendly.) (Closing the Ring, you will have guessed that the construction and real estate are two of these sectors.) THE CONSEQUENCES OF GHOSTS The halt in construction has bad consequences.

Considering the total collection, that includes prescriptions not taxes, the value of May, of R$ 49,83 billion, the same meant 6,06% fall on month in 2008. In the gathered of first the five months, the prescription arrived the R$ 267,34 billion (retraction of 6,92% on equal period of 2008). Of the loss of R$ 16,9 billion, R$ 10,87 billion correspond to the disinvestings of a charge, as the reduction of the IPI on the sales of household-electric vehicles and; R$ 5 billion mention to it compensations taxes launched for the companies, as the case of Petrobra’s; the increase of the insolvency explains another parcel of the loss of prescriptions. Only between October 2008 and January of 2009, the delay in the payment of taxes folded on previous equal period and arrived the R$ 1.1 billion. Reduction in the main IPIA reason to explain the fall in the collection is the reduction of Imposto Sobre Produtos Industrializados (IPI) for automobiles, household-electric white line and material of construction, explained the Prescription, in official notice.At the beginning of the year, the Government decreed to forts discountings in the IPI of automobiles and arrived to reduce the tax 0% for the models of lesser piston displacement, destined to the market of low purchasing power, as measured to stimulate the stimulaton of the sales in the automotivo sector, one of the most reached for the crisis.In first the five months of 2009, the prescription proceeding from the IPI on automobiles fell 81.8%, detailed the official notice, even so this factor leaves of weighing in the public accounts from July, since the Government already announced that it does not go to prorogue for more time the discountings tributaries for the improvement of the sector.Beyond the discountings tributaries, other factors associates to the crisis had also contributed negative in these five months, as the fall of the profits of the companies (- 29.5%), the retrocession of the industrial production (- 14.6%) and the fall of the importations (- 29%).The fall of the collection compelled the Government to apply cuts in the budget of diverse ministries and to revise it stops low some investments that were foreseen.Brazil is officially in contraction technique, for accumulating two trimesters of negative growth, with the retraction of Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) of 3,6% in the last trimester of the last year and of 0,8% in the three first months of 2009.Position of the FederalSegundo Prescription the Federal Prescription the trend for the collection June tax continues of fall, perhaps a little lesser that May. .