Phil Flynn

For Phil Flynn, analyst at Alaron Trading of Chicago, the focus is on demand: the data from the energy information Administration (EIA) showing that it has raised its forecast on the demand of world oil and United States for the first time since September are a sign that things are stabilizing for the demand side. In the immediate term, there are also other specific factors that affect the price of oil. Factors such as delays in maintenance work on refineries affecting production in the United States or, like the advent of the so-called driving season in the United States, which is the time of greatest demand for gasoline for the year in the South American country (this will begin to feel between mid and late June). Here it is worthwhile to make the following observation about the evolution of the oil price: it can be said that some of expectations that have driven upward the price of a barrel of crude, may not materialize paradoxically by upward in the price of oil. The strong increase in the price of a barrel of crude probably have an inflationary impact on economies which limit economic recovery (this beyond what decide the central banks with their interest rates that are too low).

Returning to what interests us venture: how will the price of oil towards the end of year evolve? How to have some opinion, different media I’ve read, I found that most analysts agree that crude oil will continue to more expensive progressively up to be between US $75 and US $ 80 barrel. In this they were cuts approved and applied by the OPEC, and the first signs of economic recovery, reportedly on the market. For Lawrence Eagles, global head of commodities for JP Morgan, the evolution of petroleum It will depend on what happens in terms of economic recovery: If economic forecasts are correct, and we are coming out of the recession, the path of the oil will be rather on the upside. I particularly believe that such solid evidence there is no to ensure that economic recovery takes place in this year. The possible impact of the current rise in the price of crude oil on the prospects of economic recovery have not been evaluated in the projections. Neither has been analysed too how will continue the quotation of the dollar relative to major currencies. Don’t see you at the moment, more likely that the price of crude oil continue behaving upward beyond your current level, supported by economic fundamentals.