If we analyze the forecasts of economists on the development of the crisis for Russia, and to reject extreme views, most experts predict two scenarios of the crisis. The baseline scenario, the oil in our next year will cost $ 50 per barrel and the dollar will be given 32 rubles. According to pessimistic scenario, oil would cost $ 30 per barrel, while the dollar will be given 42 rubles. So now the population withdraws ruble deposits them into the face of uncertainty in the U.S.. Should I do it now? We must ask ourselves – and to what extent can reduce demand for our raw materials? In today's world oil consumption depends to a very heavily on the U.S. economy. We can expect that at best prices fall to a level where they were in the period being the U.S., but before the credit bubble (from 1986 to 2003), ie to $ 30-50 per barrel. In the worst case, fall below then for Russia pessimistic scenario is worse, but this option is unlikely, because world economic model has changed, a certain word in the world economy, China began to speak, its energy consumption is not will drop the price of oil below $ 30.
Likely to be sold moderately optimistic scenario. The level of oil will be around $ 40-50. This means that Russia will export goods and services worth approximately $ 200 billion, which was observed at a similar price of oil and metals in 2004. There are, however, one scenario by which the nominal price of oil can greatly increase. This scenario – depreciation of the dollar, but even here most likely a new Obama administration will not tolerate such a development.
There is another option. The global financial crisis, foreign portfolio investments will be focused on oil economies, and then Russia in 2009, expects a boom of investments by nonresidents. An example of such a change: Growth of the Russian market in 2000-2003. amid falling market capitalization of the entire group of industrialized countries. With the deteriorating situation on the developed markets, Russia may well become a 'safe haven'. But this option is only likely to dream, because deterioration has already occurred in 2008, but the boom did not happen, on the contrary, we observed outflows. In Russia, to talk about downs of the economy it is not necessary – this year to forecast GDP to grow by 6,8-7%, and next in 2009 – by 3-3,5%. Experts believe that countries that do not have a large external debt and recession (falling GDP), and eventually will major role in the task of overcoming the crisis. Russia under these criteria is perfect. Conclusions: The boom of the Russian economy in 2009 did not happen, but a serious further deterioration can not be expected, the crisis We will throw at the 2004 level and this level will slow development of the new Russian economy, I would be more interest in her innovative technologies. Overview of forecasts made by: Maxim Grekov (Director Keith Trust) Yevgeny Gavrilenkov (Chief Economist GK "Troika Dialog"), Vlad Borkusa (director of consulting and research firm Konnasi), Olivier Blanchard (American economist, PhD MIT Institute), Yuri Chashin