The Subconscious

Why? Since it is so frightening, you can not run into him and, instead, it is easier to deny than confront him. Unfortunately, he remains forever in that reject 'low', always subconscious. You become comfortable to live with this fear through your process of denial, but, somehow, you always feel that chtoto holding you back, or you can imagine that gets loose. This is a 'low-level' (But always present), the fear that you deny has the ability to become powerful only by the very act of denial. And, this type of fear remains in the subconscious and, therefore, will affect your beliefs and, in eventually manifest as your reality. If you are a trader, it will interfere with you until your worst fears are not realized in the failure.

Traders who are experiencing thoughts of failure, should not shy away from them. Instead, they have to figure out what causes these thoughts and take action to eradicate them. Traders who are afraid of failure, ultimately, will fail. Traders who are afraid of success, will not succeed. If you are having these thoughts, do not trade until you encounter with these thoughts openly, when they will be less powerful than if they were rejected.

You should confront them and remove their power, so they do not occupy your thoughts. You have to deal with the fear of failure or fear of success, and to remove these fears from your mind before you succeed in anything you do. Therefore, carefully choose their thoughts, and desperate to protect them! External factors may influence and really influence your thinking.

Forecasts Of The Fiancial Crisis

If we analyze the forecasts of economists on the development of the crisis for Russia, and to reject extreme views, most experts predict two scenarios of the crisis. The baseline scenario, the oil in our next year will cost $ 50 per barrel and the dollar will be given 32 rubles. According to pessimistic scenario, oil would cost $ 30 per barrel, while the dollar will be given 42 rubles. So now the population withdraws ruble deposits them into the face of uncertainty in the U.S.. Should I do it now? We must ask ourselves – and to what extent can reduce demand for our raw materials? In today's world oil consumption depends to a very heavily on the U.S. economy. We can expect that at best prices fall to a level where they were in the period being the U.S., but before the credit bubble (from 1986 to 2003), ie to $ 30-50 per barrel. In the worst case, fall below then for Russia pessimistic scenario is worse, but this option is unlikely, because world economic model has changed, a certain word in the world economy, China began to speak, its energy consumption is not will drop the price of oil below $ 30.

Likely to be sold moderately optimistic scenario. The level of oil will be around $ 40-50. This means that Russia will export goods and services worth approximately $ 200 billion, which was observed at a similar price of oil and metals in 2004. There are, however, one scenario by which the nominal price of oil can greatly increase. This scenario – depreciation of the dollar, but even here most likely a new Obama administration will not tolerate such a development.

There is another option. The global financial crisis, foreign portfolio investments will be focused on oil economies, and then Russia in 2009, expects a boom of investments by nonresidents. An example of such a change: Growth of the Russian market in 2000-2003. amid falling market capitalization of the entire group of industrialized countries. With the deteriorating situation on the developed markets, Russia may well become a 'safe haven'. But this option is only likely to dream, because deterioration has already occurred in 2008, but the boom did not happen, on the contrary, we observed outflows. In Russia, to talk about downs of the economy it is not necessary – this year to forecast GDP to grow by 6,8-7%, and next in 2009 – by 3-3,5%. Experts believe that countries that do not have a large external debt and recession (falling GDP), and eventually will major role in the task of overcoming the crisis. Russia under these criteria is perfect. Conclusions: The boom of the Russian economy in 2009 did not happen, but a serious further deterioration can not be expected, the crisis We will throw at the 2004 level and this level will slow development of the new Russian economy, I would be more interest in her innovative technologies. Overview of forecasts made by: Maxim Grekov (Director Keith Trust) Yevgeny Gavrilenkov (Chief Economist GK "Troika Dialog"), Vlad Borkusa (director of consulting and research firm Konnasi), Olivier Blanchard (American economist, PhD MIT Institute), Yuri Chashin

Directions Psychological Science

To become a first class trader, you need to clearly understand their own limitations. But most traders are newcomers do not know. For example, a behavioral economist Dr. Terrance Odean found that online investors tend to sell outside their expertise. They do not have an accurate picture of what they can and can not do. Such a distorted exaggeration of abilities is not characteristic only for the traders.

This is a widespread phenomenon. Study show that when you are trying to assess how well your activity trader beginner, your intuition is better not to trust. Dr. David Dunning (Dr. David Dunning) and colleagues (2003) in a recent article in "Current Directions Psychological Science '(Current Directions in Psychological Science) shows that most people are' blissfully unaware his incompetence.

" This aspiration is too high to assess their ability has been noted in several studies. When people offer to take the test on abilities such as logical reasoning or grammar mistakes, they tend to overvalue their work: they think that their result is well above average (60% and above), although in reality it does not exceed 25%. Such a revaluation is not limited to tests. People tend to overestimate their work in various fields. Hunters think they know more about firearms than is in fact a doctors think that they no longer know how to accurately diagnose patients than in reality. Tests have shown even that when people offer money for an accurate assessment of their work, they still can not do it. Dr. Dunning and his colleagues believe that poor performers are doubly punished. Not only did they perform poorly, but they still lack the psychological ability to feel what they are doing poorly. So what distinguishes them from the good performers? Poor workers begin with the belief that they – the 'good performers' and not in a hurry to develop a method of assessing their work. Good workers, by contrast, try to objectively measure accurately their work and avoid worrying about 'Good' or not. Indeed, studies show that they actually underestimate the work. When they see other people's results, they wonder how well they have coped in comparison with others. Fortunately, the bad workers are not doomed to remain at the bottom. In their experiments, Dr. Dunning has shown that when poor performers show how poorly they work, and give instructions on how to improve their skills, their results are improving and they are more accurately assess their work. These studies offer a way in which the trader is a novice can improve their achievements. First of all, you need to know that an intuitive assessment will be extremely overpriced, and take active steps to overcome this. Secondly, it is necessary to provide an objective measure of your trading results, such as diary trader, so that you know exactly how well you trade. Third, increase your level of knowledge. As how to grow the experience, the evaluation of their work will become more accurate. Remember that. Objective and accurate assessment of your abilities is vital to successful trading